Browsing the blog archives for March, 2009.

A disturbing sign…

Early Warning, Energy, Peak Oil, Policy, Speculation, Technology

in an already very disturbed world. On a scale, this isn’t a Super Biggie, but I consider it bleakly indicative.

The Times of London is reporting that Royal Dutch Shell oil company (Shell) is abandoning its alternative energy plans. This is not a good thing, IMHO, as they intend to focus on oil, gas and biofuels. Well – oil is at or just past peak, gas is not far behind and biofuels are not an optimal method of keeping things going. This refocusing really only means one thing as far as I can see – they have changed their vision of the likelihood of their scenarios.

Last year, a letter came out of Shell, (From: Jeroen van der Veer, Chief Executive, To: All Shell employees, 22 January 2008, Subject: Shell Energy Scenarios)

that said, and I quote:

The first, a scenario we call Scramble, resembles a race through a mountainous desert. Like an off-road rally, it promises excitement and fierce competition. However, the unintended consequence of “more haste” will often be “less speed” and many will crash along the way.

The alternative scenario, called Blueprints, has some false starts and develops like a cautious ride on a road that is still under construction. Whether we arrive safely at our destination depends on the discipline of the drivers and the ingenuity of all those involved in the construction effort. Technical innovation provides for excitement.

It goes on to discuss their preference for the Blueprints Scenario. And by investing in alternative energy systems, they were investing in the Blueprints Scenario. by abandoning their efforts in alternative energy, the obvious conclusion is they no longer believe the Blueprints Scenario is the likely one, and that the Scramble Scenario is the more likely, and they are positioning themselves for the grinding disaster of such a Scramble. This is NOT good, IMHO.

A Scramble scenario means drastically asymmetric production and distribution of resources – haves and have nots – and Shell is interested in being a “Have”. However, it is clear that as resources tighten and become increasingly difficult to obtain, the trend toward nationalisation of said resources will be necessary by the governments of the nations located on top of these resources, especially if the nation is small. This will only work to the disadvantage of “oil companies” as they are already minority stakeholders in the world oil market with only (IIRC) 17% ownership of energy resources. A Scramble Scenario will pit nation against nation for what lies beneath them, (per Klare) and the ongoing humanitarian disaster in the botched war in Iraq obviously does not serve as a desirable model.

In conclusion, Shell (a company with a long history of brutality) abandoning alternative energy development is a canary in a coal mine moment. These people spend a lot of money developing scenarios and models, and when they decide to shift billions of dollars of research, they don’t do it on a whim. Simply, they are expecting a deeply suboptimal future and are positioning themselves to profit from it. Nice.

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A response

Culture, Economics, Energy, Environment, Politics, Theory

I wrote a response to Shaviro’s excellent analysis of a conference he attended that featured Zizek and Badiou.

It follows, with a few modifications:

Henry Warwick says:
March 15, 2009 at 10:47 pm

I would like to point out that capitalism has always operated at the expense of the commons. It is why the biosphere is as utterly screwed as it is.

From my research and perspective, contemporary capitalism is no more or less direct in its rapacious greed to ruin the world – to chew rocks and spit nails, computers, automobiles, plastic corn forks, and those stupid little cups you get to hold ketchup. God I hate those things.

Early capitalism took the most immediate and local “Commons”, and the result were the Enclosure Acts forcing land into the hands of the rich and the peasants into cities to work at factories. The Enclosures effectively removed the Commons from existence.

In North America in 1492 Europeans found 24,709,000 km^2 of “Commons”. Instead of peasants feeding and watering their livestock on it, they found several civilisations of Natives who had been using the land for tens of thousands of years. Like the peasants of the UK, they were quickly forced off their land to make way for European farmers, soon followed by Industrial machinery and shopping malls and the “beautiful new Trail Of Tears golf course”. Sometimes I wonder how much of the Enclosure Acts and their techniques were results of the North American colonial experiment.

So, Enclosures and Invasions provided land based capitalism the raw materials. Then, the metals and fossil fuels provided by the theft of the land, in turn provided the energy and resources to create much more complex social and technical organisations like the interweb thingie.

Frankly, I do not see the pollution in, say, China, as Chinese pollution, or, the exploitation of workers in China or Malaysia as Chinese or Malaysian exploitation. I see it as Western and American. This is my reasoning:

I own a factory here in Canada. We make Canadian Widgets for Canadians. Wages in Canada are not cheap and business taxes are tough here, so I relocate the factory to some banana republic, like, Oooh, Alabama where unions are weak. And set up factory there. And so the money flows from Canadian pockets to me and I send off a pile of it to Alabama to keep the Widgets flowing. Then I talk with a Chinese gentleman who tells me I can make Canadian Widgets in China for 1/10 the price, and he’ll help me set it up. Next thing you know, a bunch of Alabamians are unemployed and I have a factory going in China, stinkin’ the place up with pollution making my Canadian Widgets.

So, is it Chinese pollution? If I hadn’t been able to move the factories out of Canada, the pollution never would have left Canada, so I would argue, no, it is Canadian pollution that has been exported to China. In this way, the entire planet is rendered a “Commons” that is then cut up and divided for the sake of capital and profit. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) doesn’t make it “more direct” than before. If you were a peasant in the Lake District in 1710, and some sheriff came by saying “Sorry lad – but you’ll have to give up the farm and move to Liverpool, and if you don’t it’s off to jail with you, and you haven’t but nowt to say about it, so go along quiet like.” that’s pretty direct, IMHO, and there isn’t much more direct than that.

The creation of Immaterial Production was only possible with the energetic and materials production that is presently available. This is prima facie correct. The real problem is the irreversible transition to lower energy states and degraded materials conditions that will avail in the not so distant future. Can such a civilisation exist?

Some argue, no: we are going to go blindly off a cliff like the Reindeer on St. Matthew Island, where when they were introduced in 1944, their numbers increased increased from 29 animals to 6,000 by 1963 but then underwent a die-off the following winter to less than 50 animals from a collapse of the food supply and within a few decades had completely died out.

Most of these theorists (Hardin, Duncan, Bartlett) figure it won’t be a one year collapse, but perhaps a one or two generation (20 – 40 year) collapse beginning with the collapse of oil exports sometime in the 2010s/2020s.

The destruction of the “Commons” for the vanity of the ruling class is also seen as a driving factory in the collapse of Easter Island. The Commons in that case was the forest. They cut down all the trees and within a few generations their population collapsed into constant warfare and cannibalism.

Others, such as myself, see a die off as well, but not over a period of 40 years – more likely 100 – 200 years, depending on how stupid people are.

From my perspective, the supposed qualitative differences between production from land capital and Immaterial Production from digital infrastructure are not of real significance, nor is one more immediate and direct than the other. You still have the freedom to starve.

Freedom, by Art Bears:

After this I saw multitudes
Forced from the land,
Cleared for the wool.
Dispossessed, refugees,
Who were told
To be free -
Free to starve,
Or to Slave;
free to choose
A or B, as we offered.
To labour or die!

I saw cities explode with
This freedom, and
Covered my eyes!

I would submit that present capitalism is faced with several big problems:

1. An imminent and permanent decline in total energy production. Work requires energy. No energy, no work. no work, no profit, no profit – bye bye capitalism… The top of the elite has been well aware of this problem for a number of years, but really starting with Laherrere and Campbell’s article in March 1998 Scientific American on the imminent loss of cheap petroleum resources. Note, Matthew Simmons, a leading figure in Energy depletion analysis, was a key energy advisor to the Cheney Administration.

2. The collapse of many basic materials. Many elements in groups 10, 11, and 12 of the periodic table are especially stressed. GeoDestinies by Walter Youngquist provides more than enough info on this. My understanding is he is going to republish it with updated info soon. It’s not for happy making.

3. The inversion of Jevon’s paradox, where rather than conservation only resulting in increased use of resources and economic growth, economic growth will only be predicated on the conservation of resources at a rate greater than the loss of energy from the system. I think I have a PhD waiting for me in there somewhere…unless….

4. Even though ICT exists at the highest energy and resource level, it will be maintained long beyond its sustainability inflection point as its effects in providing data and information and pacifying billions with entertainment is worth the loss of resources, as it helps inform and temper society as civilisation skitters into what is shaping up to be a trainwreck of a transition to a sustainable society. hmmmm… that sounds more interesting….

You wrote: But they seem to me to be overly opimistic when they suggest that this means that we are finally reaching the point where the “objective conditions” for communism finally exist, or that the property form has become a “fetter” on the technological means of production, a fetter that is ready to be burst asunder.

and I agree with you that their hopes are unfounded. The transition from feudalism to capitalism was only possible when the objective conditions existed such that the reproduction of labour in a (nascent) capitalist system was possible. HOW people worked and survived and how this work was financed (both in terms of dollars and resources) had to come prior to any actual “capitalist” formations. The Romans had factories to make bread. HUGE factories that ran off water wheels. We don’t talk about Rome as some ancient capitalist state. And even if a Roman said “hey – we have factories and we are creating a new class of people enslaved to our machines and we use huge sums of money to finance this factory – let’s call ourselves capitalists!!!” They’d say he was crazy and feed him to the lions.

Same with “communism”. you’re not going to get communism out of computer networks. Networks can be used for progressive ideas, gestures, and programs, (viz Rossiter and Organized Networks) but these machines are made by giant corporations and only exist from the insane destruction of our ecosystem. When we can figure out how to make computers out of sand and sea water (two things I don’t think we’re ever going to run out of) and assembled by people who do so voluntarily for the joy of building them – no – I don’t see this as any kind of a stage for communism. Quite the contrary….

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Music drives, FLAC

Culture, Music, My Life

So, I finally have two hard drives at home for the same purpose – to hold music.

One is a 250gig the other is a 500gig. The plan is to copy the music on the 250 over to the 500, and then bring the 500 back to work, so I can listen to my music collection there as well.

I will be going over my entire collection to make sure that EVERYTHING that is on CD is on the 250, so the copy process will be as complete as possible.

The plan is this: at work I listen through tiny little computer speakers – so quality is not much of an issue – mp3s are fine. At home, MOST of the listening we do is of a background variety – dinner time, reading books or magazines, watching the fire, hanging out with friends, etc. Detailed listening is different. We have the gear (our stereo system is very very good) so if we feel the need to listen to something in some detail, we can go upstairs, collect the CD or LP and haul it downstairs for listening. But most of the time, we don’t care “that much”. It does need to sound good, but a CD ripped at 192 playing quietly in the background of dinner conversation will sound Just Fine Thank You.

The drive will be hooked up to a small laptop which then goes to our sound system.

Done.

The eventual plan is to replace the mp3s with FLAC files. If Apple would simply realise that no one really gives a rats ass about apple lossless codec (ALC) and that FLAC is the smartest and simplest way to go, and SUPPORTED FLAC IN iTUNES, it would make my life a lot easier.

Why is FLAC so important? Because most people I know use a Windows machine, and FLAC is the high quality audio of choice among MS Windows users.

Example as to relevance:
I happen to have Lizard by King Crimson on LP. Now, I can record the LP (which I paid $6.99 for at Sam Goody’s back in 1975 – which in inflation adjusted dollars would be $26.66!!!), scratches and all, to my hard drive. Or, I can go to Amazon and get it for $13.99 plus shipping, making it closer to $20, and then rip the CD to FLAC. Or, I can get the FLAC files from my neighbour. Now, if it was just one particular record, I wouldn’t care, but I have THOUSANDS of records, and I want them in FLAC. So, I can rip them from CD myself and have to re-purchase a bunch of music I already own, OR, I can do the obvious thing and share drive data with my neighbours, saving me the crazy hassle of finding every last record and ripping it to FLAC.

And some of it will not be “rippable” as some of it is out of print. This is a big and pressing issue with my vinyl collection. It is also a problem for some of my CDs as well – I have the CD of “THIRST” by Saqqara Dogs (awesome record) but the CD itself is now filled with microbubbles and no longer plays – I only have it on LP and 192 mp3 now…

In short, I want iTunes to get on the stick and fully support FLAC. Because it doesn’t, I will have to eventually buy some miniature laptop and an extra drive for it and dump my FLAC files there, and that laptop will NOT be an Apple laptop. Ya hear me Steve?

iTunes exists to sell Apple Hardware – iPods and computers. Because iTunes does NOT support the industry standard of high quality audio, FLAC, they are and will continue to lose out. This is especially important as people gravitate away from files and go more towards internet radio hybrid systems like Rhapsody and Pandora and similar developments.

Personally, I prefer files. I don’t like the idea of missing a payment and being cut off from music.

So, today, I will move mp3s to a drive that will eventually house FLAC, and another step is made toward developing the Warwick Digital Culture Archive (music, video, etc.)

When the kindle costs $100, I’ll get one…

10 MAR 09 Edit:

…for some reason, comments aren’t showing correctly, even when I approve them…. Sigh. I’ll have to fix that. Anonymous Student asked: How can someone have 250gigs of music? It’s pretty easy. Just do the math. Your average CD is not filled to the brim, so the average CD is 500megs of data. Compressed to FLAC, make it 250megs each. Now, over a period of a few decades, collect 1000 CDs. Bingo! There’s your 250gigs of audio… Easy peeeezy.


Now, 250gigs of MP3 is a LOT of music. I have about 2500 recordings (About 1100 CDs, 1000 vinly LPs, and the rest in cassettes, and digital files from iTMS and elsewhere). Each compresses at 192kpbs to about 80megs per record or so. So, that comes out to about 200gigs. Of MP3s. So, again, it is easy to fill a 250gig drive with tunage.

best, HW

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Progress on website

General

The audio section is working.

http://www.henrywarwick.com/audio

It’s still uneven and wonky – CSS sucks – but I’m doing what I can to fix it.

Imaging also has a lot of fixes in it, but there are more to come…

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It’s Monday…

My Life

Slither down the greasy pipe so far so good, you will be like your DREAMS TONIGHT.

Joe the Lion, Made of Iron.

so, the quizzes are ready. Tomorrow big day. Yay.

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More work done

General, My Life, Technology

Today we went north and hurtled down a snow covered hill. Fun. I also worked on some of the pages for this site. It’s coming along, SLOWLY.

I now officially hate CSS. There is no reason why it couldn’t be handled like Illustrator or (the long lost and sadly missed) FreeHand. But, no. Why? Because it was designed to keep people away from web development, and if it was too easy, it was destroy the wages of CSS developers.

Bah. humbug.

Tomorrow I prep for the quiz on Tuesday, and go to a curriculum committee meeting. Yay.

Now Playing: Calvary Cross by Richard Thompson.

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