22 JULY 03

I wrote the following letter to a fellow who runs a site on PNAC, the Republican/Fascist conspiracy that is dedicated to a ruinous unipolar geopolitic. My response to his site follows, and it outlines my ideas on the subject.

Interesting site on pnac.

What’s even more interesting is the link below. It was written during the
clinton era pre-9/11. I believe it still holds, as the real game in this
world is economic. I see the mid-east troubles as a side show to the real
issue: The madness of American Unipolarity, and the necessity of a
multipolar future.

The link below discusses issues inside the Chinese Military from the 1990s,
but, again, since the fundamental structures still stand, the problem hasn’t
changed – 9/11 and the idiotic war on terror I see as (murderous, stupid,
and tragic, of course) but basically a sideshow.

the biggest problem with multipolarity is the formation of superstates,
similar to, but not exactly congruent to those predicted by Orwell. Oceania
(NAFTA), EUrasia (esp. when the russians finally join), and EastAsia (esp.
when Japan, vietnam, Philipines etc. and China complete their own
semispheric trade accords. Look for that in the mid – late 20teens)
Look for proxy wars between India (Oceania / Eurasia client) and a Chinese
client.

I also think there is the possibility of the development of an Islamic pole
or pseudoPole. East Asia, it’s own trouble with Islamic fundies aside, would
be more happy with this than Oceania and Eurasia. Follow the guns – I think
you’ll find China pouring a lot of ordnance into Islamic states. The Islamic
Pole or pseudoPole would be enough to temporarily stagger Oceania and
Eurasia with proxy wars, and even strain any alliance they might have
against EastAsia. The goal being to buy time while EastAsia develops into an
equal pole.

The present administration is too stupid and reactionary to plan like this -
they see a unipolar situation and will simple seek to maintain that at all
costs. VERY short sighted, indeed.

The next empire will be the EU when Russia comes on board, and NATO is put
to pasture note – NEVER disbanded, just made irrelevant and more of a joint military
tool for “peace keeping” and other crypto-colonial efforts. I would expect
Russia to join later this decade or early next. With Russia on board, it
will be a unified economy from Portugal to Alaska. A massive consumer state
in the west, and vast resources in the east, including one of the largest
oil and gas reserves on the planet. Oceania won’t be able to compete, and
its power will fade.

If the present hegemons are running the show then, expect a great deal of
misery. If intelligent foresighted people are in power, expect Oceania to
actually prosper: with a reduced military budget, a progressive tax
structure, and a balanced federal budget, there will be plenty of capital
for expansion and innovation. With (as what presently obtains) a bloated
military and deficits, the USgov will suck up all available cash, driving up
real interest rates (even as the fed sinks to zero) and propel the US into a
depression.

that’s how I see it playing out. What do you think?

best,

HW

the link I discussed earlier – a real MUST READ for policy wonks:

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/pills2/